The Role of Financial Planners: Lessons from Nashville

Yesterday, I was down in Nashville speaking at the Financial Planning Association’s national meeting. It was an interesting time! Speaking with the young man at the coffee shop, our conversation went something like this: “I’m from Alabama.” “How did you get here?” “Like everybody else, music.” Clearly, this is a one-industry town, from the convention center (the Music City Center) to the signs for the Grand Ole Opry.

Admittedly, I don’t know much about country music. But from what I understand, quite a bit focuses on hard times—working folks getting stuck with the kind of misfortune that happens every day but who keep going despite the pain. That old joke comes to mind: if you play a country record backwards, you get rehired, your girl comes back, the truck starts up, and the dog comes back to life. If you think about it, all of these things, and worse, happen to everyone—and we all need to get through them. Sometimes, it helps to know others face the same pain and have persevered. That’s what I understand about country.

The soundtrack of our lives

Given that, it makes sense that the financial planners are here. Our job, essentially, is to help people plan for—and get through—some of life’s toughest challenges. Most of us do it without guitars (although I know some terrific Commonwealth musicians), but the soundtrack of people’s lives is just the same.

It’s easy to get lost in the glitz and flash of Nashville. And here in the financial industry, we certainly have our high-profile people. But the core of both is the same: helping people get through the story of their lives and helping them keep going and do better. Just as with country music, there’s money and glitz. But the bones are about real people and real problems.

In many ways, we are in a boom. The market is at all-time highs, plus job growth and confidence are strong. Things are good. While we certainly have concerns, for many people the actual problems are those of success. It is easy to get excited about the market highs, the money we are making, and so forth.

Enjoy the good times, prepare for the bad

But the most important things to remember are that the good times will not always be there, that tough times are always not too far off (in one way or another), and that our job—indeed, the reason for our profession—is simply to plan to ride those out. To use the good times to prepare for the bad times.

That doesn’t sound all that exciting and, in the glitz of Nashville, maybe not that much fun. It is, however, what we do.

This lesson was, frankly, not what I expected to take away from this trip. It is, however, a powerful takeaway for me and, I hope, for you. Indeed, I learned quite a bit during the Q&A session after my talk, much of which will no doubt show up in future posts. I always get a lot out of speaking with advisors, and this time was no exception.

 

Matthew Lang is a financial advisor located at 236 N Washington St, Monument, CO 80132. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 719-481-0887 or at matt@langinvestmentservices.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CAIA, MAI, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2017 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Investing during troubled times

Investing in Troubled Times: Navigating North Korea, Harvey, and Irma

Presented by Matthew Lang, Lang Investment Services.  Monument, CO.  Serving Investors for 19 years.

The past few weeks have been unusually turbulent. North Korea has tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb and launched a missile over Japan; as a result, the U.S. is openly considering war. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, devastating both Texas and Louisiana. And now we have Hurricane Irma, the most powerful Atlantic storm in history, approaching Florida. Given these events, there are certain questions that investors should be asking themselves. That is, should we be doing something different? If so, what?

Indeed, these questions do require a response. What that response should be, however, depends on an analysis of what has actually changed in the economy and financial markets as a result of these events. So, to decide what we should be doing, let’s take a look at what those changes have been.

Has there been meaningful change?

Despite recent events, the situation with North Korea has been ongoing for decades—this is just the most recent phase. What has actually changed is not that major. A bigger bomb and somewhat better missiles do not put the U.S. at direct risk. In many ways, and regardless of media coverage, this is just a continuation of where we have been for some time.

As far as hurricanes Harvey and Irma, there certainly have been consequential effects on people’s lives. Bigger picture, though, major storms are a regular feature of American history (just think of Sandy and Katrina). Despite the damage they cause, they do not change the economy in a meaningful way. So as bad as Harvey was, and as bad as Irma may be, at the national level they should not result in significant changes.

And how did the markets—which respond to economic forces rather than human tragedy—react to the North Korean situation and the storms? Just as you might expect, they remained steady. In fact, U.S. markets remain close to their all-time highs, supported by strong economic and earnings growth.

What does the past tell us about the future?

To get an idea of whether the economy is likely to change going forward, we can look at the past to review how previous wars and storms have affected markets. Let’s start with wars.

A war with North Korea would be devastating for South Korea and Asia as a whole, but it would have limited effects here in the U.S. In the past, wars have typically resulted in initial declines in the markets. On average, however, markets were up just three months later. As for ongoing effects on the economy, war has typically boosted economic growth, largely due to increased government spending. We certainly can’t rule out a worse experience this time. But history suggests that, as investors, we have no need to panic just yet.

The same can be said for the effects of natural disasters. Of course, they will be devastating to local residents and economies—Houston will be years recovering from Harvey, as New Orleans was from Katrina. But at the national level, the effects are usually short lived, with an initial decrease in economic growth and employment due to the damage and disruption. This is usually followed by a recovery as the rebuilding process gets underway. In this case, the damage and the recovery period are likely to be longer than usual, with two of the worst storms in history hitting within days of each other. But the basic story should end up being the same. In fact, the recovery in Houston has already started as damage is assessed and repairs begun.

While every war and natural disaster is different, and tragic for those most directly affected, we as a country have gotten to be very good at picking up the pieces and moving on. Remember, the U.S. has actually been at war for more than a decade in Afghanistan, and the economy has continued to grow. Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were devastating, but we moved on and recovered. As long as the base economy remains sound (which it is), the country and the financial markets remain well positioned to ride out the damage.

Should investors be worried?

I said at the start that recent events require a response, and they do. Please consider donating to the victims of the storms, and prepare yourself mentally for more worries from the North Korean situation. You should expect dramatic coverage of all this from the media. You should not, however, confuse emotional responses with what you should be doing with your investments.

Despite the very real problems created by the geopolitical situation and the hurricanes, the U.S. economy and financial markets remain in solid condition and are likely to stay that way. There will be a time and a reason for worrying about our investments. But what we have right now does not meet those conditions. Let’s respond in a way that addresses the real problem, rather than being tricked into doing something we will later regret.

Matthew Lang is a financial advisor located at 236 N Washington St, Monument, CO 80132. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 719-481-0887 or at matt@langinvestmentservices.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CAIA, MAI, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2017 Commonwealth Financial Network®